eSAF ecosystem kick-off at Oodi: Early movers with biogenic CO2 will be the market makers! 

What was the event about?

The eSAF lead market ecosystem is an open ecosystem catalysed by Hydrogen Cluster Finland. Its ambition is to enable the production of 60,000 tonnes of eSAF in Finland by 2030 and 250,000 tonnes by 2035, assuming existing mandates remain in place and a functioning book-and-claim system is established.

The eSAF ecosystem kick-off event brought together participants from aviation, energy, industry, infrastructure, finance, and the public sector. The goal was not to present polished solutions, but to openly discuss where we are today, what is still missing, and how Finland and Europe can move forward.

From the Hydrogen Cluster perspective, eSAF is our first lead market, followed by markets such as maritime, and green steel, for initiating green hydrogen demand. eSAF has been selected as a lead market as aviation is a hard to abate industry, and one of the first sectors  to be presented with  mandates requiring hydrogen-based fuels already in 2030.  The eSAF lead market initiative connects climate targets, national Hydrogen economy roadmap, industrial competitiveness, and energy security in a very concrete way. From Finland’s perspective, this is all about economic growth and energy self-sufficiency. The same applies at European level. Reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels while building domestic value chains is strategically important.

One of the clearest messages of the day was that aviation is entering the e-fuel era partly because it has to. As Riku Aho from Finnair and Laurent Donceel from Hydrogen Europe put it, this transition is not driven by enthusiasm alone, but by regulation. Mandates are coming, and they are not going away.

For Finland eSAF creates a real opportunity. But early movers cannot just observe from the sidelines. We need to actively build a national roadmap, connect it to EU level mechanisms, and treat CO₂ as strategic possibility, not just a byproduct. Public–private partnership (PPP) between the government and the eSAF value chain companies is essential and should be led by the government and established as a matter of priority.

What role does eSAF play?

The first panel discussed openly whether flying is socially acceptable in today’s climate context. The conclusion was not about stopping aviation, but about finding credible pathways forward. eSAF is one of those pathways – not the only solution, but a crucial one.

Without predictability around demand, pricing, and policy, investments will not happen. Pekka Grönlund from Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment highlighted the state’s dual role. In the long term, investments must be market‑based. But right now, the transition needs support. What is required from the public side includes mandates, credible penalties and targeted support for early investments. At the same time, subsidies cannot last forever. At some point, the system needs to function without them.

Riku Aho also reminded us that airlines themselves have an active role to play. Building SAF literacy, making fuel choices visible, and helping corporate customers participate in reducing flight emissions are already happening.

Uncertainty and price remain the biggest barriers

If I had to name the two biggest obstacles discussed throughout the day, they would be:

1. Policy uncertainty, especially around mandates
2. High cost

Everyone agreed that mandates and penalties are here to stay – legislation is not going to disappear. However, recent public discussion and media speculation about potentially changing mandates, penalties, and implementation rules are creating uncertainty, which in turn is slowing down investment decisions.

We discussed different market mechanisms, such as double-sided auctions and book-and-claim models. These are promising, but only if they are simple, predictable, and trusted. In the current phase, the role of the state as a risk reducer remains critical.

CO₂ is the backbone of the eSAF ecosystem

The second panel focused on the CO₂ value chain, and what is missing to make biogenic CO2 available for eSAF project developers.

The biggest bottleneck today is willingness to sign long-term offtake contracts and carrying the risk. We discussed what derisking instruments are needed and how functioning market is designed as well as the important role of publicly funded infrastructure.

Several speakers highlighted that the value chain matters more than individual technologies. Investors are looking for bankable, integrated structures, not isolated systems. Infrastructure and logistics – pipelines, hubs, storage – are central to making this work. One point that resonated strongly with me was that cooperation across the entire value chain is not optional; it is a prerequisite.

Looking ahead

What I took away from the eSAF ecosystem kick‑off was a strong sense of realism combined with confidence. Finland has a strong investment environment, relevant expertise, and the potential to build integrated value chains that serve both domestic and European markets.

Yes, the coming years may be challenging, especially given global political uncertainty. But the direction is clear.

My hope is that we keep our eyes on the planet while building solutions that also create jobs, investment, and resilience. As was agreed in the event; we will open the champagne when the first eSAF plants are up and running. If we are brave early movers today, that moment may come sooner than we expect. I’d like to thank all the participants and speakers of the eSAF ecosystem kick-off event.

eSAF lead market ecosystem is an open ecosystem catalyzed by Hydrogen Cluster Finland. it aims to that in Finland, 60 000 tons of eSAF is produced by 2030 and 250 000 tons by 2035 while mandates are as decided and book and claim system is up and running. If you want to join our ecosystem and support these targets to be fulfilled, please send email to riitta.silvennoinen@h2cluster.fi and I will add you to our mailing list.